Hi everyone, EM markets are ready for September FED meeting.
Probably FED will hike interest rates in 25 September ,new interest rate will be 2,00+0,25 (2,25).
Currently level of the 10 year US bond
Especially this decision will be vital for Turkish Economy,Turkey have an external debt payment in October and December.Also Fed can hike interest rates fourth times in December.
Last week TCMB hiked its political interest rates from 17,75 to 24 levels.But away Lira still drops value against all of the foreign exchanges.Reserves of TCMB are not enough to collect current problem for Lira.Only it can help current deficit problem.
Reform is neccessary for in every area of Turkish Economy. Many times and especially in my last article I recommend many things for struggling in this incident.
TCMB is only an asset of Turkey,if the monetary policy is not powerful,interest rate decisions or other some decisions of TCMB can not be important role.
CDS:440
2 Years Bond:25,32
Dolar/TL:6,40
Euro/TL:7,50
Other EM Markets(Argentina)
I guess until end of 2020,all of the EM markets will have hard days for their economies.
Argentina 1 USD is 39,625 Peso,Some reforms and IMF program can treat Argentina Economy.But markets wait much more things,currently total external debt of Argentina 250 billion USD .Brazil and South Africa have current deficit problems.India can be more ready for FED decisions.
